April 2026 Money Outlook: Rate Hikes, $3 Fuel, and What to Do About It

Let's not sugarcoat it — March 2026 has been rough on household budgets.

The RBA hiked the cash rate to 4.10% on 17 March — the second consecutive increase this year after bumping it to 3.85% in February. That's back to levels we haven't seen since late 2024, and it's hitting mortgage holders hard.

Here's the snapshot:

• Cash rate: 4.10% (up from 3.60% at the start of 2026)
• Average variable mortgage rate: ~6.75%
• Fuel: National average $2.19/L, regional areas $3+/L
• Inflation: Running at 3.8%, with forecasts pushing towards 5% by mid-year
• Wage growth: 3.4% — below inflation, so real wages are going backwards

If you're on a variable rate mortgage, the two hikes this year have added roughly $150/month to repayments on a $600,000 loan. That's on top of whatever you were already paying from the 2022–23 hiking cycle.

Use our mortgage calculator to see exactly how the rate change affects your repayments.

Petrol above $2/L doesn't just hurt at the bowser. It flows through to everything — groceries, deliveries, tradies, public transport fares, and the price of anything that gets moved by truck (which is basically everything you buy).

The driver is geopolitical. Tensions around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz — where roughly 20% of the world's oil passes through — have sent global crude prices soaring. On top of that, new tariffs on imported goods are creating a second wave of cost pressure across supply chains.

For the average household spending $60/week on fuel, the jump from $1.70/L to $2.19/L means an extra $17/week or about $70/month. In regional areas where people drive further and prices are higher, it's significantly worse.

The government hasn't introduced any direct fuel subsidy for consumers (yet). There's talk of a temporary fuel excise cut like the one in 2022, but nothing confirmed.

Short answer: probably.

All four major banks — ANZ, CBA, NAB, and Westpac — are currently forecasting another 25 basis point hike in May, which would take the cash rate to 4.35%. That would match the peak from November 2023.

The reasoning is straightforward: inflation is re-accelerating. The RBA's target band is 2–3%, and we're heading the wrong way. Fuel costs and tariff-driven supply chain inflation are exactly the kind of things that make the RBA nervous — they push up prices broadly and are hard to control with domestic policy.

RBA Governor Michele Bullock has been pretty direct in recent press conferences, basically saying that if inflation keeps rising, rates will too. The next RBA meeting is 19–20 May.

If May does bring another hike, repayments on a $600,000 variable mortgage would go up by roughly another $75/month. That'd bring the total increase since the start of 2026 to around $225/month.

If there's one upside to rising rates, it's what you earn on your savings. And right now, the numbers are solid:

• Best introductory savings rate: 5.40% (typically for 3–4 months, then reverts)
• Best ongoing savings rate: 5.35% (with conditions like depositing $1,000/month)
• Term deposits (12 months): Up to 5.15% from some online banks

If you've got an emergency fund sitting in a big-four bank account earning 1–2%, you're literally leaving money on the table. Moving $20,000 from a 1.5% account to a 5.35% account earns you an extra $770/year for about 15 minutes of effort.

A few decent options right now include ING (5.35% with conditions), Ubank (5.25%), and BOQ (5.15% term deposit). Always check the conditions — most high-rate accounts require a minimum monthly deposit and a certain number of card transactions.

April is a good month to tighten things up before a potential May rate hike. Here's where to start:

1. Audit your mortgage rate: If you haven't switched or negotiated in the last 6 months, call your lender and ask for a better rate. Most will knock 10–30 bps off just to keep you. If they won't, refinancing could save you thousands. Use our mortgage calculator to compare.
2. Move your savings to a high-interest account: Takes 15 minutes, saves hundreds. Don't leave cash in a 1% account when 5%+ is available.
3. Review your budget for fuel: If you're commuting daily, work out the actual monthly cost at current prices. It might be cheaper to negotiate WFH days than to keep driving five days a week. Use our budget planner to see where your money is going.
4. Lock in a fixed rate (maybe): If you think rates are going higher, fixing a portion of your mortgage could make sense. But be careful — if the RBA eventually cuts again later in 2026 or 2027, you'd be locked in. It's a bet either way.
5. Check your tax withholding: With EOFY approaching, now's a good time to make sure you're not overpaying tax throughout the year. Use our tax calculator to check your take-home pay against what you're actually receiving.

A few key dates and events to keep an eye on:

• 1 April: New financial year for some government payment rates (check if your Centrelink payments have been indexed)
• Mid-April: March quarter CPI data — this is the number that will decide whether May brings a rate hike. If it comes in hot, expect the RBA to move.
• 19–20 May: Next RBA board meeting and rate decision
• 30 June: End of financial year — last chance for tax-deductible contributions to super, charitable donations, or work-related expense claims

We'll keep updating our calculators as rates change. Bookmark the mortgage calculator and tax calculator — they're always running on the latest numbers.

For the official cash rate history, see the RBA cash rate page.