RBA at 4.1%: What Two 2026 Rate Hikes Mean for Your Mortgage

After a run of cuts through 2024-25, the Reserve Bank has now raised the cash rate twice in 2026. The cash rate sits at 4.1% after the March 2026 meeting — up 25 basis points in February and another 25 in March.

The major banks haven't absorbed the increases. They've passed them straight through:

• NAB — variable home loan rates up 0.25%, effective 27 March 2026.
• Macquarie — variable home loan rates up 0.25%, effective 2 April 2026.
• CBA, Westpac, ANZ — all moved on comparable terms within the same window.

Six months ago the market was pricing one rate hike at most for 2026. We've already had two, and the next RBA decision is Tuesday 5 May 2026.

Variable mortgage rates are now roughly 50 basis points higher than they were in late January. Here's what that's done to monthly repayments on a 30-year loan at principal and interest, assuming the rate moved from 6.19% to 6.69%:

Loan size	Old repayment	New repayment	Extra per month	Extra per year
$500,000	$3,062	$3,225	+$163	+$1,956
$750,000	$4,593	$4,837	+$244	+$2,928
$1,000,000	$6,125	$6,449	+$324	+$3,888
$1,250,000	$7,656	$8,062	+$406	+$4,872

Plug your own loan size into our Mortgage Calculator to see your exact number. Most borrowers will see the full impact in the next one or two billing cycles — banks generally keep repayments stable and extend the loan term until you ask to adjust.

Nobody has a crystal ball. But the case for another move is real: core inflation has been stickier than expected, the labour market is tight, and the RBA explicitly warned in its March statement that it is "prepared to act further" if underlying inflation doesn't return to the 2-3% band on the expected path.

On the other side, two consecutive hikes already feed through the mortgage book with a lag, and household consumption has softened. Most bank economists now sit on a "hold in May, one more possible later in 2026" call — but positioning has shifted rapidly, and the ASX 30-day interbank cash rate futures are worth watching in the days before the meeting.

The practical point: plan for a 4.1% floor, and stress-test your repayments at 4.6% to be safe.

1. Ask your bank for a discount. Call the retention team and ask what rate they'll give an existing customer in good standing. A 0.20-0.40% discount on a $600,000 loan is worth $1,500-$3,000 a year. Banks will move for existing customers — but only if asked.

2. Compare, then refinance. If your current rate is above 6.70% variable and you have more than 20% equity, you should be able to do better. Use our Mortgage Calculator to compare offers against your current rate.

3. Put extra into an offset account, not into extra repayments. Every dollar in offset reduces interest identically but stays accessible. Run the math in our Extra Repayment Calculator.

4. Check your fixed rate expiry. If a 2.x% fixed loan from 2021 is rolling off this year, the repayment shock is enormous. Model it now — don't wait for the letter.

5. Recheck your borrowing power. If you're house hunting, banks are assessing you at around 8.7% (actual rate + 3% serviceability buffer). Our Borrowing Power Calculator uses that same buffer.

If the RBA holds on 5 May and inflation continues to cool into Q3, variable rates probably drift sideways through winter. If there's a third hike, most borrowers on a $750K loan will be paying around $400/month more than they were in January 2026 — on top of cost-of-living pressure that hasn't gone anywhere.

Either way, the playbook is the same: stress-test, negotiate, consolidate into offset, and don't assume "variable" means "set and forget". The cheapest mortgage in Australia is the one where the customer asked a better question last week.

None of this is financial advice. Rates move. Check the RBA, APRA, and your lender's website for current numbers before acting.