Interest Rate History Australia: Every RBA Move from 2020 to 2026

16 March 2026|7 min read

Complete timeline of every RBA cash rate decision from the COVID emergency cuts to 0.10% through the 2022-23 hiking cycle, the 2024-25 easing, and the surprise 2026 hikes to 4.10%. A full table of every move with context on what drove each decision.

Every RBA cash rate move from 2020 to 2026: the complete record

The Reserve Bank of Australia has made 24 cash rate changes since March 2020, taking the rate on one of the most dramatic journeys in Australian monetary policy history — from an emergency low of 0.10% to a cycle peak of 4.35%, back down to 3.60%, and now climbing again to 4.10%. Here is every single move. 2020: March 3 — cut 25bp to 0.50%. March 19 — cut 25bp to 0.25%. November 3 — cut 15bp to 0.10% (the pandemic floor). 2022: May 3 — hike 25bp to 0.35% (the first hike in 11 years). June 7 — hike 50bp to 0.85%. July 5 — hike 50bp to 1.35%. August 2 — hike 50bp to 1.85%. September 6 — hike 50bp to 2.35%. October 4 — hike 25bp to 2.60%. November 1 — hike 25bp to 2.85%. December 6 — hike 25bp to 3.10%. 2023: February 7 — hike 25bp to 3.35%. March 7 — hike 25bp to 3.60%. May 2 — hike 25bp to 3.85%. June 6 — hike 25bp to 4.10%. August 1 — hike 25bp to 4.35% (cycle peak, first time). November 7 — hike 25bp to 4.35% (re-confirmed after September and November pauses — this was the final hike of the 2022-23 cycle). Note: The November 2023 hike took the rate from 4.10% to 4.35%. 2024: No changes through most of the year. The RBA held at 4.35% for 12 consecutive meetings while waiting for inflation to convincingly enter the 2-3% target band. December 10, 2024 — cut 25bp to 4.10%. 2025: February 18 — cut 25bp to 3.85%. May 20 — cut 25bp to 3.60%. The RBA then held at 3.60% through August, September, and November 2025. 2026: February 18 — hike 25bp to 3.85%. March 17 — hike 25bp to 4.10% (current rate).

Phase 1: COVID emergency cuts — March to November 2020

The RBA slashed rates three times in 2020 as the COVID-19 pandemic hit Australia. The cash rate went from 0.75% (where it had been since October 2019) to 0.50% on March 3, then to 0.25% on March 19 in an emergency inter-meeting cut, and finally to a historic low of 0.10% on November 3. The November cut was accompanied by the introduction of a $100 billion Term Funding Facility for banks and a yield curve control target of 0.10% on 3-year government bonds — tools the RBA had never used before. Governor Philip Lowe stated at the time that the cash rate would not increase until actual inflation was sustainably within the 2-3% target range, and that the RBA did not expect this condition to be met before 2024. This forward guidance — later proven spectacularly wrong — gave borrowers confidence to take on large mortgages at variable rates near 2%, setting the stage for significant financial pain when rates eventually rose. Mortgage rates bottomed at around 1.77% for the most competitive variable products and below 2% for some fixed rates. Housing prices surged as cheap money drove demand, with national prices rising 22% in 2021 alone.

Phase 2: The fastest hiking cycle in RBA history — May 2022 to November 2023

The RBA began raising rates on May 3, 2022 — the first hike in over 11 years — with a 25bp increase to 0.35%. What followed was the fastest and most aggressive tightening cycle in RBA history. Over 18 months, the cash rate rose by 425 basis points across 13 separate increases, reaching 4.35% in November 2023. The initial hikes were large — four consecutive 50bp moves from June to September 2022 — as the RBA scrambled to catch up with inflation that had surged to 7.8% (headline) and 6.9% (trimmed mean) by December 2022. From October 2022, the pace slowed to 25bp increments as the economy began to show signs of the cumulative impact. The hiking cycle paused twice — in April 2023 and from July to September 2023 — before the final hike in November 2023. Each hike added approximately $150-$160 per month to repayments on a $500,000 mortgage. Over the full cycle, monthly repayments on a $500K loan went from approximately $2,100 at a variable rate of 2.50% to approximately $3,340 at a variable rate of 6.85% — an increase of $1,240 per month or $14,880 per year. This was the largest sustained increase in housing costs Australian mortgage holders had ever experienced, and it came after many had borrowed at what turned out to be artificially low pandemic-era rates.

Phase 3: The hold and the long-awaited cuts — 2024 to mid-2025

The RBA held the cash rate at 4.35% for over a year, from November 2023 through November 2024 — 12 consecutive meetings without a change. During this period, the new Reserve Bank Board (reconstituted following the RBA Review recommendations) repeatedly stated it needed to see inflation sustainably within the 2-3% target band before easing. Trimmed mean inflation gradually fell from 4.2% in the December 2023 quarter to 3.5% in the June 2024 quarter and finally to 3.2% in the September 2024 quarter. That was enough for the RBA to deliver its first rate cut in over four years on December 10, 2024 — a 25bp reduction to 4.10%. Two more 25bp cuts followed in February and May 2025, taking the cash rate to 3.60%. Markets had priced a faster easing cycle, but the RBA moved cautiously, emphasising that the labour market remained tight with unemployment at 4.0% and wages growth running at 3.8%. The three cuts totalling 75bp gave variable mortgage holders relief of approximately $100-$130 per month on a $500K loan — welcome but modest compared to the $1,240 monthly increase during the hiking cycle. The RBA then paused again, holding at 3.60% through the August, September, and November 2025 meetings as it monitored the economy's response.

Phase 4: The surprise 2026 hikes — nobody saw this coming

The RBA stunned markets by hiking rates 25bp to 3.85% at its February 18, 2026 meeting, reversing course after just three cuts. The decision was driven by a re-acceleration in services inflation, a surprisingly tight labour market (unemployment had dropped back to 3.9%), and rising energy and food prices driven by global supply disruptions. The December 2025 quarter CPI data, released in late January, showed trimmed mean inflation at 3.7% — higher than the 3.3% the RBA had forecast. The February hike was only partially priced by markets (about 30% probability), and the Australian dollar jumped 1.2% against the US dollar on the announcement. Consumer confidence, which had been gradually recovering, dropped sharply. The March 17 hike to 4.10% was more anticipated — markets priced roughly 60% probability ahead of the meeting — but it was still a bitter pill for mortgage holders who had enjoyed three rate cuts and were expecting more. The cumulative effect of the two 2026 hikes was a 50bp increase in six weeks, completely unwinding the December 2024 and February 2025 cuts. Borrowers who had adjusted their budgets to the lower rate environment were hit with an abrupt reversal.

What the history tells us about where rates go next

Looking at the full 2020-2026 cycle, several patterns are clear. First, the RBA tends to move in clusters — the 2022-23 hiking cycle was 13 consecutive hikes before a sustained pause. The 2024-25 cutting cycle was three cuts before a pause. The 2026 hiking cycle is currently two consecutive hikes. If history is a guide, the RBA is more likely to deliver one more hike (making it three) than to pause after just two, unless the inflation data turns quickly. Second, the RBA under-predicts turning points. It famously said rates would not rise until 2024 and then hiked in May 2022. It signalled the end of the hiking cycle in late 2023 and then delivered the surprise 2026 hikes. Forward guidance from the RBA should be treated as the central bank's current best guess, not a commitment. Third, the cash rate has now returned to 4.10% — the same level it reached in June 2023 during the hiking cycle. This suggests the 'neutral rate' (the rate that neither stimulates nor restricts the economy) may be higher than the RBA previously estimated, perhaps around 3.5-3.75% rather than the 2.5-3.0% assumed before the pandemic. If so, rates may settle in the 3.5-4.0% range over the medium term rather than returning to sub-3% levels. For mortgage holders, the implication is that variable rates around 5.50-6.50% may be the new normal. Planning your finances around a variable rate of 6.00% or above — rather than hoping for a return to 4-5% mortgage rates — is the prudent approach.

Complete RBA cash rate table: March 2020 to March 2026

For reference, here is every cash rate change in table format with the date, direction, change amount, and new cash rate level. March 3, 2020: Cut 25bp, cash rate 0.50%. March 19, 2020: Cut 25bp, cash rate 0.25%. November 3, 2020: Cut 15bp, cash rate 0.10%. May 3, 2022: Hike 25bp, cash rate 0.35%. June 7, 2022: Hike 50bp, cash rate 0.85%. July 5, 2022: Hike 50bp, cash rate 1.35%. August 2, 2022: Hike 50bp, cash rate 1.85%. September 6, 2022: Hike 50bp, cash rate 2.35%. October 4, 2022: Hike 25bp, cash rate 2.60%. November 1, 2022: Hike 25bp, cash rate 2.85%. December 6, 2022: Hike 25bp, cash rate 3.10%. February 7, 2023: Hike 25bp, cash rate 3.35%. March 7, 2023: Hike 25bp, cash rate 3.60%. May 2, 2023: Hike 25bp, cash rate 3.85%. June 6, 2023: Hike 25bp, cash rate 4.10%. November 7, 2023: Hike 25bp, cash rate 4.35%. December 10, 2024: Cut 25bp, cash rate 4.10%. February 18, 2025: Cut 25bp, cash rate 3.85%. May 20, 2025: Cut 25bp, cash rate 3.60%. February 18, 2026: Hike 25bp, cash rate 3.85%. March 17, 2026: Hike 25bp, cash rate 4.10%. Total moves: 21 changes across 6 years. Net change from March 2020 start (0.75%): +335 basis points. The current cash rate of 4.10% is 400bp above the pandemic floor and 25bp below the November 2023 cycle peak of 4.35%.