RBA in May 2026: Two Moves Done, Is a Third Coming?

The RBA Board has moved the cash rate twice already in 2026. Whatever the May 5 verdict is, two facts are already locked in:

• Variable mortgage rates sit roughly 50 basis points higher than they did in late January, and every major bank has passed the moves through.
• Bond markets and ASX 30-day cash rate futures are pricing in at least one more move before year-end — the live debate is whether it lands in May, August, or November, and whether a third move follows.

Whichever way the May meeting goes, the playbook for borrowers does not change much. The conditional probability of a "third move" is what determines how aggressively to act, and what stress-test buffer to use when comparing offers.

Plug your loan size and current rate into our brand-new Rate Shock Calculator to see your repayment under each scenario in real time — drag the slider, hit a preset, see the delta. The numbers below assume a $750,000 30-year P&I loan, but you'll get more out of this with your own.

Three plausible paths from here, costed against a $750,000 30-year principal-and-interest loan starting at a 6.69% variable rate (the rate most major-bank borrowers are sitting on after the two earlier moves):

Scenario	Variable rate	Monthly P&I	Δ vs January 2026
Hold from here	6.69%	$4,837	+$244/mo
One more move (+0.25%)	6.94%	$4,963	+$370/mo
Two more moves (+0.50%)	7.19%	$5,090	+$497/mo

For a $1,000,000 loan, the impact of two more moves is closer to $660 a month extra — almost $8,000 a year. Those numbers are calculator-derived; run yours through the Mortgage Calculator and the Extra Repayment Calculator to see how much you can claw back with offset or a small extra repayment.

If you're house hunting rather than already in, the more painful number is borrowing power. Banks assess at the actual rate plus a 3% serviceability buffer (APRA's rule). Two more moves push assessment rates close to 10.2% — which can knock six figures off your maximum loan. Re-run yours in the Borrowing Power Calculator before you bid.

Mortgage stress is not evenly distributed. Households at the median income carrying a near-median Sydney mortgage are visibly stretched. Households in the top quartile of earners often have offset balances large enough that another move is annoying but not destabilising. The honest question is which group you're in.

The Money Mirror gives you that read in 30 seconds — drop your salary, super, savings, and city; we benchmark against the actual ABS distribution for your age cohort. If you're sitting in the top 25% for salary and savings, you can probably stomach a third move. If you're in the bottom 50% for savings on a salary above the household median, you're the household the RBA is most worried about, and the levers below matter most.

It's not just about coping — peer comparison also tells you whether asking your bank for a discount is going to land. Banks discount for borrowers they don't want to lose. If you're a high-income borrower with offset balances, you're worth keeping. Lead with that.

1. Negotiate first, refinance second. Call the retention line at your current bank and ask for the rate they'd give a new customer in your position. Any answer below 6.40% on a clean loan is worth taking. The retention team's bar to keep you is lower than the new-business team's bar to win you.

2. Stress-test at 4.6% on the cash rate. If a third move lands, you want to know now whether the repayment fits. Use the Mortgage Calculator, set the rate 50bp above current, and check that the monthly number doesn't break your budget.

3. Shift extra cash to offset, not extra repayments. Same interest reduction; full liquidity. The Extra Repayment Calculator shows the saving — but unlike a redraw, your offset balance is yours on tap.

4. Check fixed-rate roll-offs. The 2021 wave of 2.x% fixed loans is rolling onto today's variable rates, and the repayment shock is enormous on a $700k+ loan. Model the new repayment now — the Take Home Pay Calculator tells you what your gross-to-net is; the Mortgage Calculator tells you what's left after the new repayment lands.

5. Re-check borrowing power before any auction. If you're house hunting, banks will be assessing you at the post-meeting rate within days. Two more moves and your maximum loan drops by tens of thousands. Borrowing Power Calculator uses the live serviceability buffer.

If the May 5 decision is a hold and inflation continues to soften through Q3, expect variable rates to drift sideways and bank cashbacks to come back into the market by spring. The case for refinancing weakens slightly — your existing bank knows you have less reason to walk and may not discount as hard. The case for offset stays exactly the same.

If a hold extends through August, the conversation shifts toward whether the RBA's next move is up or down. That's the point at which fixing a portion of the loan starts to look interesting again — not before. Fixing now locks in today's elevated rates; the carry for fixed borrowers only pays off if rates climb further than expected.

Either way, run the numbers in the Money Mirror and the Mortgage Calculator, set a calendar reminder for the August meeting, and don't make a 30-year decision based on a single board statement.

None of this is financial advice. Rates move. Verify against the RBA's own Cash Rate Target page and APRA's serviceability buffer guidance before signing anything.