Refinance in May 2026? The 30-Minute Decision Framework

If your current variable rate is above 6.50% and you have more than 20% equity, you can almost certainly do better. Switching from 6.69% to 6.30% on a $750,000 30-year P&I loan saves $190/month, $2,280 a year. Your break-even on switching costs (~$700 of discharge fees + new lender admin) is roughly four months.

If you're sitting at 6.30% or below, you're already in market-leader territory. Don't refinance for the 0.05% saving — your time is worth more than that.

Run your own number: drop your loan + current rate into the Rate Shock Calculator, drag the slider down to whatever offer you've been quoted, and check the monthly delta. Anything above $100/month is usually worth pursuing.

1. Your current variable rate. Top-right of your last bank statement, or call the bank and ask. Anything above 6.69% on a $500k+ loan is below average for May 2026.

2. Your loan-to-value ratio (LVR). Outstanding loan ÷ current property value. Below 80% LVR opens the discount tier. Below 70% opens the best-rate tier. Property value: use the most recent sale-price index estimate from realestate.com.au or domain.com.au — you don't need a formal valuation yet.

3. Your gross income + existing debts. The new lender will assess you at actual rate + 3% buffer per APRA. Pre-check what they'd lend you in our Borrowing Power Calculator — if your current loan exceeds that, refinance is harder.

4. Time remaining on your loan. Refinancing usually resets the term to 30 years. The headline monthly drop looks great — but if you had 22 years left and refinance into 30, you've added 8 years of interest. Run the comparison in our Mortgage Calculator with both scenarios; you can usually elect to keep the existing term length.

Always call your current bank's retention team first. They have a separate pricing book to the new-business team. The script is:

"I'm seeing rates at X% on comparable loans. I'd like to know what you can offer me as an existing customer with [N] years of repayments and an LVR around [Z]%. If we can't get close, I'll be looking elsewhere this week."

The retention team's bar to keep you is lower than the new-business team's bar to win you. A 0.20-0.40% discount on a $750k loan saves $90-180/month with zero paperwork. The Rate Shock Calculator tells you exactly what each 5bp matters — share that number with the retention rep so it's specific.

If retention can't get within 0.15% of the best market rate, then refinance.

The leading variable rates as of early May 2026 cluster around 6.19-6.39% for clean loans (under 80% LVR, principal & interest, owner-occupier, sub-$1M). Above 80% LVR you're paying 6.55-6.85%. Investment loans run 25-50bp above owner-occupier.

What to actually do this week:

1. Pull your statement. Note your current rate.
2. Run the deltas. Use the Rate Shock Calculator to see what each plausible refinance offer (6.19%, 6.29%, 6.39%) saves you against your current rate.
3. Call retention. Quote the market rate. Ask for parity.
4. If retention misses, get 3 quotes. Comparison sites surface ~80% of the market — go direct to the lenders for the cleanest pricing.
5. Decide on a number, not a feeling. Refinance pays for itself in months 2-4 if the rate drop is >0.30%. Below that, the discharge + new admin fees eat the saving for the first year.

If a third RBA move lands later in 2026, the calculus only gets stronger — every 25bp move is another $125-150/month on a $750k loan. Stress-test now in the Rate Shock Calculator at the +0.50% preset and check the new repayment fits your budget.

Skip refinance if any of these apply:

• You're within 12 months of selling. Discharge fees + new admin fees won't pay back before settlement.
• You have a fixed-rate portion ending soon. Wait for it to roll off, then refinance the whole loan as variable.
• Your LVR is above 90%. You'll likely pay LMI again — that's $5-15k that wipes the rate saving for years. Use the LMI Calculator to confirm.
• Your income story is messier than 12 months ago. If you've gone self-employed, taken parental leave, or had a salary drop, the new lender's serviceability test may fail at exactly the moment you don't want a credit-application no-go on file.

None of this is financial advice. Run your own numbers, get one to two quotes, and make the call yourself. The Money Mirror tells you where you sit; the calculators tell you what each move costs.